Fantasy Football: Top 5 Picks

Thirty years ago, the eager pork-swordsmen of Angel Beach High were burdened by a singular obstacle: they needed to score. The same could be said for this years' class of fantasy runningbacks. As the NFL has shifted to a pass-first league, the measuring stick for RBs is less about finding holes and racking up yardage and more about the propensity of touches relative to the penetration of endzones. Increasingly, teams are employing the "backfield by committee" approach to their ground game, diluting the potency of its most profitable position. In theory, the very notion of an elite 'Back has become somewhat of an anomaly; and since reliability and durability are so difficult to predict, we must defer to the probability of volume and, of course, the lessons of Porky's.   

1. Aaron Rodgers
Had the Packers not run into a Giant buzzsaw at the end of last season, the buzz on Rodgers might be reaching feverish proportions. Nonetheless, if there was ever a Quarterback poised to duplicate Tom Brady's 2007 campaign, it would be A-Rod now. With an overemphasis on drafting runningbacks, he is still is relatively below the radar for a QB with more weapons than Stark Industries, in an offense that will literally pass on every down. And, when things fall apart, Rodgers is nimble-footed in the pocket and can scramble like Skyler White prepping breakfast. On the ground, he's good for at least 250 yards and 3 TDs. In the air, sky's the limit.
Scoring prediction: 52 TDs  

2. Arian Foster
Playing alongside a healthy Andre Johnson should help his yards-per-carry, but this blade has two edges. Quarterback Matt Schaub can be partial to the red-zone fade and the sure-footed "Natural" is an acrobat on a jump ball. Still, Foster will be the primary option inside the 20 and his prowess as a backfield receiver, combined with a forceful slipperiness running downhill, make him a legitimate candidate to amass 2500 yards-from-scrimmage.
Scoring prediction: 16 TDs

3. Calvin Johnson

Madden curses are for mere mortals. The Megatron Don (who catches megaton bombs more faster than you blink) somehow reported to Lions camp in better shape than ever. Presumably, he spent the off-season training with Treadstone (minus the chems) and, for relaxation, blasting home runs at Comerica. As far as receivers are concerned, we are looking at a shark in a fish tank. Expert consensus pegs his battery-mate Mathew Stafford a top-5 fantasy QB, which can only indicate this will be a monster year for the Mega-monster.
Scoring prediction: 18 TDs

4. Ray Rice
"With speed, he's agile plus he's worth your while." All deference to the Five Foot Assassin, this may be the year we learn which direction Ray Rice is headed. At 25, he has been the snapshot of consistency since 2009, but his numbers hover more towards solid than gaudy. Now that he is clearly the Raven's best offensive player and their primary (and likely secondary) option, he may be due for some bonkers mathematics. If he can break off a few long runs and improve his receiving YACs, he will be the closest we get to a predictably elite 'Back.
Scoring prediction: 15 TDs       

5. LeSean McCoy
If the Eagles are going to be less of a mess, the offensive production will be more evenly distributed. McCoy is fresh off a breakout season (1624 all-purpose yards, 20 TDs.) However, according to Andy Reid, he shouldered too much of the workload in 2011. A reduction of touches may result in a slight reversion to the mean, but McCoy will still be the focal point of a potentially dangerous offense and he is one of a handful of players whose value is secure even if his scoring takes a dip.
Scoring prediction: 13 TDs 

Sleeper. Willis McGahee
It's gotta be the altitude. From Mike Williams to Tatum Bell to Willis McGahee, mining late-round gems from that Mile High turf is not always an exact geology, but with Manning minding the huddle, at least we can expect some offensive fluidity. McGahee's performance last season (1250 all-purpose yards, 5 TDs) ranked him in the upper echelon of his peer group, and that was with Tim Tebow bogarting his red-zone carriers. While age and health is a precaution, Peyton's passing proclivity is not. John Fox likes to ground and pound and if the Broncos are firing on their respective hydraulics, Willis may be a diamond in the rough.
Scoring prediction: 9 TDs  

@HebrewRational