OSCAR PICKS: It's A Parisian Invasion!

Happy Oscar day world! Reminding all my of east-of-Sepulveda friends not to venture north of Melrose between La Cienga and Vine, unless you're prone to masochism. Today in Hollywood we celebrate...the French? Between Woody Allen's mystical Parisian escapade, Scorsese's love letter to George Méliès, and the cast and crew of The Artist, it's time put away the Freedom Fries and break out a beret, a baguette and your fruitiest Bordeaux. Off we go... 

 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Who will win: VIOLA DAVIS 
Superb actor, wish she didn't have to get her statue playing a maid. 

Who should win: GLENN CLOSE 
Meryl's performance as Maggie Thatcher was flawless but I rather spread the wealth. Close deserves this as much as anyone.

 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Who Will Win: JEAN DUJARDIN
In arguably the tightest race, I'm gonna go Jean over George and Brad. All these movies were charmingly solid, and the leading men did the heavy lifting. It's a jump ball, but this feels like the year of The Artist.

Who Should Win: DEMIAN BICHIR
Like Leo DiCaprio, Pitt has amassed an impressive breadth of work and has never won an Oscar, but I'm going to go with Bichir. I realize the nomination was his "award' but this was a brilliantly understated performance in a movie that's as much of an LA story as LA Story.

 

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Who will win: THE ARTIST
Bridesmaids or Midnight in Paris could pull off an upset, but I won't bet against the tide. 

Who should win: MARGIN CALL
Not only was the script watertight, it was devastatingly relevant social and economic commentary. 

 

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Who will win: THE DESCENDANTS
Thanks for playing, here's your consolation prize.  

Who should win: TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
A confounding and beguiling film driven by a beautiful and intricate screenplay.

 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Who will win: OCTAVIA SPENCER
A break out role for sure; hopefully this will secure more and more...

Who should win: MELISSA MCCARTHY
Hey, I'm a sucker for Chris Farley humor.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Who will win: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER
This will be well-deserved. No qualms. 

Who should win: NICK NOLTE 
A sentimental choice. He was fantastic in Warrior but his acceptance speech has the chance of becoming even more memorable.  

Directing

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Who will win: MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS 
Year of The Artist. 

Who should win: MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS
*but really Nicolas Winding-Refn for Drive.
Sorry, I had to.

 

Best Picture

The Help
The Descendants
The Artist
Moneyball
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Who will win: THE ARTIST
Last year, I claimed I'd be "shocked" if The Artist didn't win Best Picture. In Hollywood, the Academy Awards are an annual celebration of Hollywood. So, when a black and white movie backed by Harvey Weinstein celebrates the history and majesty of cinema, that's as close to a shoe-in as we can get. 

Who should win:  THE ARTIST
As far as celluloid love letters to Tinseltown go, I slightly prefer Hugo but will cede  
The Artist may be more timeless. Let's see if in ten years, the silent homage holds up as the definitive film of 2011. My guess is that it will.

But, if I were voting, the nominees would be:
Drive
Margin Call
50/50
Young Adult
A Better Life
Pariah

So what do I know?

Au revoire!


@HebrewRational